Assessments
Long-form analysis of where defense money is moving and what it changes, built from the record.
- Deals and capitalMost defense buys by the private equity firms we track were add-onsPortfolio companies announced 55% of the defense acquisitions and stakes in our study. Excluding the two busiest firms, their share was 52%.
- Budget and contractsHow much defense AI money has reached contractors so far?Selected AI-related contracts recorded $1.2 billion in obligations, October 2025–June 2026. The $49.9 billion fiscal 2027 request for AI-named budget lines depends almost entirely on reconciliation.
- M&AAre defense companies selling off more of their businesses?Not in the count. U.S.-listed defense companies agreed to 14 to 17 sales a year from 2022 to 2025. Half of 2026's eight leave the seller holding a stake.
- BudgetWhat does the FY2027 continuing resolution block for defense contractors?New starts and faster production. For 101 unclassified lines mostly reconciliation-funded in FY2026 whose FY2027 base request tops their FY2026 base, that base is about a quarter of the request.
- CapitalThe Pentagon's equity stakes concentrate on minerals, metals and magnetsMinerals, metals and magnets: all but one of 13 since July 2025. Three of the four largest disclosed come with a price floor, stockpile contract or seven-year rocket-motor framework agreements.
- CompaniesHow much of defense companies' growth since 2021 came from M&A?Among companies disclosing acquired revenue, about a third of added revenue came from M&A, mostly three deals. The five largest growers disclose no separate acquired-revenue figure.
- BudgetCongressional panels protect the defense topline while reshuffling the programsAmong procurement and R&D cuts of at least $100 million, House appropriators and Senate authorizers mostly targeted new lines or requests at least double fiscal 2026 funding.
- CompaniesWhere are defense companies putting their cash as buybacks drop?Into two $2 billion-plus deals, plant and dividends. Buybacks at the 25 companies on our growth leaderboard fell by two-thirds in the first half.
- Budget and contractsRaytheon and Lockheed Martin lead Golden Dome office contract obligationsContracts naming the Golden Dome office as funder recorded $2.9 billion in obligations through June. Those records do not identify which Treasury account paid.
- Foreign demandLockheed Martin and RTX dominate U.S. foreign arms-sale proposalsForeign customers’ share of defense sales moved less than four percentage points in 2021–2025 at the five U.S.-listed companies named on the most proposed arms-sale value.
- Drones and counter-droneEstablished suppliers hold most recorded defense drone contract obligationsRecorded drone and counter-drone obligations reached $4.3 billion in October 2025–June 2026. Entrants without department prime contracts in fiscal 2008–2014 hold 15% since October 2023.
- BudgetThe Pentagon's next drone funding jump depends on CongressFor uncrewed and autonomous systems plus counter-UAS, 81% of the $66.5B FY27 request needs new reconciliation legislation. Its discretionary portion roughly matches FY26 enacted funding.
- M&ASeven large defense primes have slowed their M&ASince 2022, the seven primes’ announced sales and acquisitions have roughly matched in disclosed value, on mixed bases. Recent acquisitions bring suppliers and production capacity in-house.
- AcquisitionIs the Pentagon buying more through commercial procedures?Inside ordinary contracts, barely: about one Pentagon dollar in five uses commercial procedures. Other Transactions doubled over matched months; FY2026 is a partial year.